by Joleen S | Nov 3, 2020 | Predict the outcome of the 2020 election.
“Trump leads briefly during the vote counting period, and claims victory. He goes on to lose in both the popular vote and electoral. He tries his options via the Supreme Court, but realizes he doesn’t have any. He resolves to try and motivate his base to act by claiming that the voting was rigged. There is chaos in the streets for days, with a sub-par effort by the police. However, once the initial wave subsides, Trump and his supporters resign to their fate.
On the congressional level, the House will remain under democratic control, and after a fierce battle in the senate, it will remain under republican majority. A seat or two will be flipped, but it will not be enough to flip the whole senate. Thus, the next four years will be partially muted by the congressional stalemate that plagued Obama’s presidency too.
Trump will do whatever possible, during his lame duck session, to spite the democrats. He will use his Supreme Court majority to pass a number of bills intended solely for the purpose of causing road-bumps for the next administration and the majority of people in this country.
So there you have it – on the eve of the most intense election in modern American history and perhaps the history of human civilization, we wait anxiously to find out if America is too stupid to continue as a nation.”
by David G | Nov 3, 2020 | Predict the outcome of the 2020 election.
“The presidential election is just two days away and the stock market has locked-in its prediction, according to one indicator. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.04% between July 31 and October 31. That means the market forecasts — by a hair — that Joe Biden will win, according to CFRA Research’s Presidential Predictor.The stock market has a fairly reliable track record: Since World War II, when the S&P 500 fell in the three months leading up to the November vote during a presidential election year, the incumbent president or party of the outgoing president has lost the election 88% of the time.
Similarly, when the S&P 500 rises during that period, the incumbent or party of the outgoing president has won 82% of the time.The stock market had been predicting a Trump victory until Friday, when the S&P 500 tumbled 1.2%. That was just enough to send stocks negative over the past three months, giving the razor-thin edge to Biden. “This year, the Predictor closed ever so slightly in the red during this three-month period, implying, but not guaranteeing, that Biden will emerge victorious,” said Sam Stoval, CFRA’s chief investment strategist.
Betting on a blue wave
The Presidential Predictor matches Wall Street’s forecasts. Goldman Sachs analysts predict a “blue wave,” in which Democrats will retake the White House and Senate and maintain control of the House of Representatives. Goldman believes that could be a positive outcome for markets.”Such a blue wave would likely prompt us to upgrade our forecasts,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report last month.Goldman Sachs (GS) wrote that a blue wave would “sharply raise the probability” of a fiscal stimulus package of at least $2 trillion shortly after the January 20 inauguration. The firm also cited Biden’s longer-term spending plans on infrastructure, climate, health care and education.Taken together, this spending “would at least match the likely longer-term tax increases on corporations and upper-income earnings,” Goldman Sachs wrote.Similarly, JPMorgan strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas noted in July: “The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities. However, we see this outcome as neutral to slightly positive.”President Donald Trump has repeatedly predicted Democrats would decimate the American economy, and the stock market would crumble if they win in November.But Moody’s Analytics found that Biden’s economic proposals, if enacted, would create 7.4 million more jobs than would Trump’s. The economy would return to full employment in the second half of 2022, nearly two years earlier than under Trump’s plan, Moody’s said.A survey of CEOs conducted by the Yale School of Management in late September found that 77% of participants would vote for Biden. More than 60% predicted he would win. However a UBS survey of 500 business owners and 1,000 investors conducted in mid-October found that 55% of business owners wanted Trump to win, while 51% of investors were backing Biden.
Predicting the outcome
CNN polling shows Biden with a sizable head-to-head nationwide lead as of October 28, and within striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed to claim victory.No incumbent has ever won a second term when there has been a recession in the two years leading up to the election, according to data from RiverFront Investment Group.The CFRA Presidential Predictor’s only incorrect forecast when the market fell in the three months leading up to an election was in 1956, when incumbent President Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson despite a 7.7% stock market decline during the Suez Crisis and the Hungarian Uprising.It’s not clear what, if anything, that outlier could mean for Trump. The market is down over the past three months in large part because of a surge in coronavirus cases. Trump’s handling of the pandemic is largely unpopular, although some could also view the wave of Covid-19 infections as out of his control. Trump still scores relatively high among voters for his economic record despite the recession.”
by Neri Z | Nov 3, 2020 | Predict the outcome of the 2020 election.
“In most countries, predicting election outcomes is the job of pollsters. In Israel, a newspaper closely aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to consult a different cohort on the question of Donald Trump versus Joe Biden: astrologists, numerologists, and palm readers. Their unanimous projection was not exactly a surprise given Netanyahu’s close ties to Trump: The U.S. president will win a second term, according to the mystics, though only after a prolonged fight.
“Trump will get reelected, but it won’t be via knockout but on points,” one of them divined in Israel Hayom, the country’s highest-circulation daily. The newspaper is owned by Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson and serves largely as a mouthpiece for Netanyahu.
“The Democrats won’t respect the outcome, and Joe Biden will steal the presidency,” leading to a crisis in the United States, the astrologer added.
The election is dominating headlines in all the Israeli media, alongside news of the gradual easing of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. In a country often consumed by its own turbulent politics, the American vote has eclipsed just about everything else.
For observers of the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu over the past four years, the fixation shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. The U.S. president has given Netanyahu huge political gifts at critical moments, helped Israel forge ties with Arab countries, and crushed Palestinian hopes for viable statehood.
Some 63 percent of Israelis prefer a Trump victory, seeing it as better serving Israeli interests, according to a poll released on Monday by the Israel Democracy Institute; only 17 percent said the same of a Biden win.
The coverage in Israel has become so granular that Amit Segal, a reporter for Channel 12 news, scolded his colleagues on Twitter for wasting their time on issues like “which polling station is more accurate in Pennsylvania.”
“Who cares what you think?” he said. “You’re in Israel.”
The soothsayers of Israel Hayom predicted it would take days or weeks for the election results to become clear in the United States—echoing the projections of more temporal forecasters. They also offered predictions about politics in Israel—where voters might be called on to cast their ballots once again in the coming months.
‘Whether or not there will be elections in Israel in the near future, Netanyahu will remain [prime minister]a and the [U.S.-Israel] alliance will continue,’ one of them predicted.”
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